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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD in Focus as Traders Await Omicron Information, RBA

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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Omicron, Danger Developments, RBA, ANZ Commodity Index – Speaking Factors

  • Danger-sensitive Australian Dollar in focus as APAC trading begins
  • Quiet occasion calendar leaves merchants eyeing prevailing threat tendencies
  • AUD/USD begins week with small bounce above main resistance

Monday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets are set to start trading with a cautious tone following final week’s volatility. The financial docket is moderately sparse in the present day, which can go away prevailing threat tendencies in management. Final week, threat aversion gripped the broader markets as the rising Omicron variant weighed on sentiment. Wall Road’s ‘worry gauge’ VIX index rose to its highest stage because the pandemic began. Buyers are repeatedly assessing the newswires to judge the potential menace the brand new pressure poses to monetary markets.

Preliminary stories recommend Omicron is probably going extra contagious and probably much less lethal, a mixture that really might bode properly for the pandemic and probably result in its accelerated finish. Britain reported over 100 newly recognized Omicron infections over the weekend, and Denmark has practically 200 instances. The US has reported a handful of instances. Maybe one optimistic aspect impact of the Omicron variant is the massive enhance in vaccinations that it appears to have impressed, with the CDC reporting the best each day totals seen since Might.

The Australian Dollar shall be in focus for in the present day’s session, with the Reserve Financial institution of Australia’s coverage determination set to cross the wires on Tuesday. Analysts count on the RBA to carry charges regular in its final assembly of the 12 months. Nevertheless, markets see a charge enhance subsequent summer season, which is far sooner than the central financial institution’s forecast of 2024. Any trace that RBA Chief Lowe could also be rising extra hawkish might ship AUD/USD increased. The currency pair has fallen for 5 straight weeks now and is presently at its yearly low.

The New Zealand Dollar has additionally carried out poorly versus the US Dollar not too long ago, with a pullback in some commodities weighing on the currency. New Zealand’s ANZ financial institution will launch its month-to-month commodity costs index for November in the present day. ANZ can also be set to report job November commercials for Australia. Elsewhere, the Philippines is ready to report retail gross sales for October.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD is trading barely increased from contemporary 2021 lows set final week. Main resistance from the November 2020 low sits just under the not too long ago made yearly low. The Relative Energy Index is ticking increased from its most oversold studying since March 2020. MACD additionally seems to be moderating. If costs proceed increased, the August low at 0.7106 might current resistance.

AUD/USD Each day Chart

audusd chart

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the feedback part beneath or @FxWestwateron Twitter

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